Currency Update - Friday 12th April 2019
AUD
The AUD reached a high of 0.7172 yesterday, it was a brief trip however as the USD index was the out-performer overnight, pushing the greenback higher against a host of currencies, dragging the AUD down to 0.7120 at this morning's open. Yesterday's Chinese CPI data printed as expected, Chinese Trade Balance figures are released later today. Elevated commodity price action keeps the AUD above key resistace around 0.71 U.S cents, risk appetite softened a little overnight, global stocks closing close to flat for the most part. The RBA's Financial Stability Review is released today, it is not expected to cause too much volatility for the home unit. It's a quiet end to the calendar week, with only second-tier data from around the globe. U.S/China trade talk progressions and Brexit shennanigans the ones to watch for.
USD
Stronger than expected U.S weekly jobless claims were the catalyst for further USD gains. The DXY opens 0.4% higher this morning, Eurodollar in the mid 1.12's, well within range. The AUD fell to a low of 0.7117 against the big dollar after eclipsing fresh monthly highs yesterday. The price of oil fell overnight, after stellar gains over the past few weeks, risk playss were muted, stocks closing flatish. Producer Inflation picked up in the U.S, PPI for March coming in at +0.6% (+0.9% exp), the annual figure printed at +2.2% YoY, +0.3% higher than expected. The Fed remains cautious, with the markets favouring a rate cut over a rate hike this year. The Fed could well be on hold for some time to come as they adopt a wait and see mode. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to their lowest margin in years, causing investors to focus on the positive employment picture from the world's biggest economy. University of Michigan Sentiment survey is released this evening.
EUR
German and French CPI for March printed as expected, the Euro edged higher but couldn't hold onto those gains against the USD, AUD opens marginally lower however. European equities were a mixed bag, the CAD the out-performer closing with +0.7% gains. Press reports surfaced that the German government revised down their 2019 GDP forecasts to +0.5% from +1.0% taking some of the shine off the Euro to close the overnight session. February Industrial Production numbers are released later this evening, in what should be a quiet end to the week for currencies.
GBP
The Pound opens marginally stronger against the AUD this morning after the U.K secured an extension to Brexit to 31st October. May reminded parliament that the U.K could leave earlier if a consensus was made before European elections in May. The Tories and Labour continue to discuss an amicable Brexit, both sides commenting that more compromises needed to be made, a quick solution is unlikely given the shenaningans so far! BOE Governor Carney said the chances of Brexit had reduced and that investment in the U.K had stalled since the 2016 referendum. No U.K data set for release this evening.
NZD
The Kiwi has fallen 50 pips against a stronger USD, opening at 0.6727 this morning. With no data to report the Kiwi should respect it's recent range this weekend, AUD softer after trading over 1.06 the past 24 hours.
Today’s data
AUD:
RBA Financial Stability Review
USD:
Uni of Michigan Sentiment
EUR:
February IP
CNY:
March Trade Balance