Currency Update - Tuesday 30th April 2019

AUD

The AUD remains in the mid 0.70's after a rather lacklustre 24 hours of trade.  With no local data to report it seems markets are waiting for the all important FOMC decision and statement early Thursday morning.  Volumes are parlicularly light as Japan is out all week for Golden Week Holidays.  Today sees the release of March's Private Sector Credit numbers as well as Chinese Manufacturing PMI.  Considering the huge stimulus programme rolled out in Q1, the PMIs could print a more upbeat outcome.  Global stocks traded sideways for the most part overnight, the ASX remains well bid at 6359.   The USD was marginally lower overnight, lending support to the AUD.  Today should be relatively calm, Chinese data released later this morning has the power to effect the local unit.  The technical range remians in tact, 0.6980 support, resistance at 0.7060 & 0.7125.

USD

The USD lost ground to the majors overnight.  Mnuchin was on the wires saying a trade deal between the U.S and China was close and to expect a resolution within a few weeks time.  This will be huge for markets if both sides can save face and claim victory, expect ASX gains and across global bourses.  To the data and U.S Personal Income rose 0.1% (0.4% exp), Personal Spending rose 0.9% to be expectations of 0.7%.  Core PCE meanwhile failed to match expectations falling 0.1% for both the Monthly and Yearly expectations.  The USD held up relatively well considering increasing calls for the FED to cut rates.  Stocks closed maginally higher, which should give the ASX a small bid tone this morning.  Chicago PMI and April Consumer Confidence are released this evening. 

EUR

The Euro was marginally higher against the USD overnight, AUD/EUR opening close to flat at 0.6312.  With no data to report from the EU it was a rather quiet session.  Spain's governing socialist party have won the Spanish election, but they are short of a majority.  Standard & Poor's left Italy's credit rating unchanged despite them slipping into recession territory a few months back.  European equities closed marginally in the black.  It's a busy evening for data with the release of Preliminary CPI numbers, German Unemployment and Q1 GDP for France, Italy and the EU.  

GBP

Sources suggest a more positive tone to Brexit negotiations has emerged, which includes a customs union, workers' rights and environmental protections.  The Pound was marginally higher against the USD, more on account of USD weakness however. The devil is in the details I suppose, nevertheless it's a positive move before European elections approach at the end of the month.  It's a quiet open to the week for U.K data, Brexit headlines to dominate volatility as usual. 

NZD

NZD/USD opens at 0.6668, AUD/NZD remains at 1.0570 after attaining 1.07 highs a few weeks back.  ANZ Business Confidence numbers are released later this morning.  NZD strength to be dictated by movements in the USD and risk sentiment.  Commodities remain well bid. 

Today’s data

AUD:

  • Private Sector Credit

USD:

  • Chicago PMI, April Consumer Confidence, Employment Cost Index

EUR:

  • April Unemployment, Q1 GDP

GBP:

  • April Unemployment

NZD:

  • Business Confidence

CNY:

  • April Manufacturing PMI 

FX Corp