Currency Update - Thursday 18th July 2019
AUD
The AUD fell from 0.7040 yesterday to lows of 0.6997 and has settled marginally higher this morning. Trade conflict fear, investor risk aversion and the likelihood of weaker U.S Fed monetary settings sent the USD lower also, the AUD unable to benefit however. It was a rather quiet overnight session , gold traded higher, global stocks drifted lower along with oil price. Today's local unemployment numbers will be important for the AUD's direction, the RBA looking to this as its main barometer on the health of the economy. 9,100 jobs are expected to have been added, the Unemployment rate at 5.2%. Resistance and support levels remain the same.
USD
U.S Housing Starts and Building Permits both printed weaker than expected, the USD drifting lower overnight, meanwhile the Beige book suggested the economy was still growing albeit at a modest pace. Trade Uncertainty held back stocks, Wall Street closing lower, gold higher in a general risk off tone to markets overnight. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Survey are released this evening. Markets do seem to be in a wait and see mode, the Fed are in action in a few weeks' time, a rate cut now built into pricing as Powell suggests a change to monetary settings. Further USD weakness may just be round the corner, time will tell. Before then we get a raft of Fed speakers who will no doubt continue to endorse a Fed rate cut.
EUR
AUD/EUR is hanging tough against the Euro. Italian Industrial Orders rose by 2.5% in May, Industrial Sales also higher. European stocks closed lower as European car sales plummeted in the month of June. There's no data released this evening from the Eurozone, so expected a quiet overnight session. Today's local Unemployment numbers will dictate short-term AUD/EUR direction, an unexpected move either way would get the AUD moving.
GBP
GBP/USD hit multi-year lows before recovering overnight, no-deal Brexit now sitting heavy in investor's minds. U.K CPI in June was flat, the annual rate confirmed at 2%, House prices climbed outside of London, the data not enough to rescue the Pound from the recent onslaught. AUD/GBP remains well bid at 0.5632. U.K Retail Sales are released this evening.
NZD
NZD/USD is back up to it's recent best at 0.6735, our Kiwi cousin taking advantage of weaker USD flows. With little action today the Kiwi will react to movements in risk markets and commodities. It's an empty data calendar this week now for the Kiwi.
Today’s data
AUD:
June Unemployment, Business Confidence Q2
USD:
Philly Fed, Williams Speaks, Jobless Claims
GBP:
Retail Sales