Chinese Retail and Employment Data Kicks of the Week

AUD

The AUD had a quiet end to last week, trading flat across most major currency pairs, the USD excluded. Asian Equities closed off the week with modest losses, Shanghai Comp down -0.2% and the Nikkei down -0.1%. however the ASX continued recent good form to finish higher by 0.5% on Friday, another new all-time peak of 7628.9. Commodities performed well over the weekend, Gold was up 1.6% and Iron Ore was up 1.7%, Silver and Copper also made significant gains. A flurry of Chinese data to kick off the week today, with Chinese Retail Sales, Unemployment and Industrial production being the noteworthy mentions. Chinese Consumption and the property sector will be key components to watch, while industrial production could weaken on both supply and demand factors. The consumption recovery could also stall again in July; the current Chinese Covid outbreak which started on 20th July has spread to at least 15 out of 31 provinces and should have a decent impact on consumption. Looking further ahead, and local employment data on Thursday will be the highlight on the Aussie data calendar for the week. The last two employment reports have been surprisingly good, however Thursday could be time to pay the piper for the current bout of lockdowns

USD

The AUDUSD traded at a gain over the weekend, currently trading at a rate of 0.7371 this morning. The pair benefited from the broader US dollar weakness and commodity gains over the weekend. All three major US Equities were flat with both the Dow and Nasdaq closing with no movement at 0% while the S&P made modest gains of 0.2%. US interest rates traded lower with the 10-year note falling 8bps in yield to 1.28% while oil also fell 1% to $68.40 a barrel. In early data, The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slumped to a 10-year low on Friday, raising fresh concerns over the health of the US economy even as Fed policymakers tried to placate bears. No noteworthy data on docket for the US today, until tomorrow evening’s US Retail Sales. Traders will keep their eyes on the headline figures for the upcoming Chinese data this evening.

EUR

The AUDEUR pair was relatively subdued over the weekend as we traded within tight ranges, offering a rate of 0.6246 this morning. European Equity markets had small gains, the DAX was up 0.3% and the CAC made modest gains of 0.2%. European Data on Friday was mixed, The German WPI (Wholesale Price index) was up 11.3% in July, missing the market’s expectations although improving from the previous month. The EU June Trade Balance posted a seasonally-adjusted surplus of EUR$12.4 billion, better than anticipated. Little in the way of data this evening with only the German Bundesbank report due tonight.

GBP

The AUDGBP pair is trading at similar levels seen to Friday morning, currently trading at a rate of 0.5314 at the time of writing. The London Benchmark FTSE 100 had minor gains of 0.4%. Firmer growth numbers, better virus conditions and not to forget, unlocking plans, kept the British Pound elevated. It’s worth noting that the UK has approved the first COVID-19 jabs to 16-17-year-olds in England starting 23 August. On this, Health Minister Sajid Javid said, "This will make sure everybody has the opportunity to get vital protection before returning to college or sixth form." The latest virus numbers, 26,750 new infections were reported on Sunday versus 29,520 the previous day whereas death tolls eased from 93 to 61. No-noteworthy data for the Pound today, tomorrow’s UK Unemployment to garner more attention but Wednesday's CPI data to be the main event.

NZD

The AUDNZD pair refreshed 9-month lows of 1.04557 over the weekend before coming in to trade at a rate of 1.04642 this morning. In early data on Friday the NZD Visitor Arrivals was down -10.4% MoM. it was reported that the number of New Zealand citizens returning home from overseas is starting to taper off. New Zealand's net population gain from migration was just 4711 in the 12 months to the end of June, down from a whopping 84,845 in the 12 months to June 2020, according to Statistics NZ. The all-important RBNZ interest rate decision will take place on Wednesday this week with markets currently offer a 60/40 chance in favour of a rate hike.