Greenback Returns to Winners Circle
AUD
The AUD opens this morning mixed against the majors, though it took a beating against the Greenback to diminish any optimism for potential revival of the Aussie. Asian Equities were opened mixed this morning with the ASX flat, Shanghai Comp -0.6%, and the Nikkei + 0.7%. The ASX was little changed, closing up 0.03% with advances by energy stocks offset by falls in consumer and real estate. Commodities were soft with Gold only gaining +0.1%, Silver up 0.5%, and Iron Ore was flat. Yesterday was a quiet day for local data, apart from the Trade Balance figure of 8.32B which came in under market expectations of 10B and the AIG Construction Index coming in at 46.5 (previously being at 47.9), both pieces of data having minimal effect on currencies. China breaks its data drought tomorrow with the release of the Caixin Services PMI penciled in at 54.5 indicating industry expansion, followed by the M2 Money Supply y/y and New Loans starting on Monday. Again, not much in terms of local data for the day ahead with only the RBA’s Financial Stability Review which is likely to have little effect on currencies.
USD
A horror night for USD Buyers as bullish commentary from Fed Speakers sent the AUD/USD spiraling down from 0.65 levels to as low as 0.6390, now trading at 0.6407. The hawkish rhetoric scared off investment markets as US Equities were down across the board at close, the Dow Jones -1.1%, S&P 500 -0.8% and NASDAQ -0.7%. US weekly jobless claims data was modestly worse than expected with initial claims rising to 219k to come in above estimates of 204k while continuing claims rose to 1.361 mio to come in above estimates of 1.350 mio, this caused a brief spike for the AUDUSD pair before the Aussie Dollar being humbled by US Dollar strength. Fed speaker Evans joined a chorus of hawkish Fed officials speaking today advocating for rate rise. Evans also mentioned that he was in favour of hiking larger and earlier, and expects to increase rates up to 4.5%-4.75% by US Springtime. The newest Fed Speaker Lisa Cook expressed that inflation is “stubbornly and unacceptably high,” according to her, still needing interest rate increases to ensure that it begins to fall towards the Fed goal. More Jobs numbers due for release tonight with Non-Farms Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate looking to improve on earlier weak Unemployment data.
EUR
The Aussie dollar lost any headway made early in yesterday’s session against the Euro, opening down at 0.6544. European equities joined North America in closing lower with the DAX -0.4% and the CAC -0.8%. Yesterday we saw German Factory Orders m/m coming in well under market expectations of -0.8% at -2.4%. EU Retail Sales for August declined by 0.3% MoM as expected with the YoY decline of 2.0% coming in a little worse than expectations of -1.7%. We also saw the French and Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, which subsequently did very little to effect currencies. There is a fair bit of data out of Germany today, with Import Prices m/m, Industrial Production m/m, and Retail Sales m/m. We also have the French Trade Balance and Italian Retail Sales m/m.
GBP
The AUD/GBP pair opened just slightly higher than yesterday morning, at 0.5740, as the dust settles after an eventful week featuring a complete U-Turn by the British Government. UK September Construction PMI rose to 52.3 beating forecasts of 48. It marked the first reading over the threshold, indicating growth since June. Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q also came in better than expected at -5.1B compared to an expected -8.0B. The BOE’s Cunliffe said the BOE feared £50BN of forced gilt sales during the turmoil and that gilt intervention will be unwound in an orderly way. Cunliffe also mentioned the speed and scale of last week’s gilt moves was unprecedented, which one would expect after such a drastic backflip of policy. Looking to the data for the day ahead, we have MPC Member Ramsden Speaking and the BOE Quarterly Bulletin which includes commentary on market developments and monetary policy operations.
NZD
The initial strength the NZD saw after the Official Cash Rate earlier has eased off and allowed the Aussie dollar to open higher this morning at 1.1316. The only piece of data released yesterday was ANZ Commodity Price Index which showed that the continuing negative trend of the global price of exported commodities, which has been heading south since April. Another sleepy day for data for the Kiwis, with no data set for release until mid-next week, and even then it’s unlikely to move markets.