Tonight's US CPI Starts Avalanche of Big Data This Week
AUD
AUD trades lower across the board against the majors, with resurgent US Dollar demand leading the way. Asian equities finished the session in the red with the Hang Seng the worst performer down 2.2%. The ASX was down 0.45% on Monday's close with steep losses across utilities -4.3% leading the fall. A mixed yet somewhat downbeat session for commodities, with Gold -0.2%, Silver 0.2%, Iron Ore -0.9%, and Copper -1.9%. In Australia today, NAB’s business survey for November will be released and we’ll be looking for the softness that has crept into other business surveys to start being reflected in the NAB survey measures of activity. With a previous level of 0, a neutral result, it will be interesting to see how businesses perceive the economic road to recovery. On the consumer side of the equation, we will see Westpac Consumer Sentiment being released today, which will give an idea of the outlook of consumers for the coming year ahead. Tomorrow, we will see RBA Governor Phil Lowe speak at the AusPayNet Annual Summit, in Sydney. Questions are expected, which may facilitate some volatility.
USD
AUDUSD has declined this morning, dipping to lows of 0.6725 in the early morning before recovering to trade at 0.6747 at time of writing. A solid start to the week for risk sentiment saw the Dow Jones trading +0.9%, the S&P 500 +0.7% and the NASDAQ +0.5% as we entered the final hour of North American trade. US 2 year yields pushed 6bps higher to 4.4% while crude oil gained 2.9% and was trading at $73.1 a barrel. In the US, CPI inflation for November will be closely watched as it is the last major data release before the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision. The ~3.5% MoM decline in gasoline prices should provide relief to the headline figure. The core measure may also reinforce the notion of a turning point in inflation trends. The modest -0.3% MoM decline in the Manheim Used Vehicle index, lower shipping costs, and improvement in retail inventories should provide relief to core goods. Core services inflation is likely to continue to receive relief from the BLS’ measure of health insurance, as was evident in October. Shelter inflation, however, is likely to remain firm as catch-up to market rents continues. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will complete its two-day meeting tomorrow. Most traders expect the central bank to downshift to a 50bps interest rate hike this month after four consecutive 75bps rate hikes. (375bps of increases since March, the most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in four decades.)
EUR
AUDEUR has lost ground this morning, surrendering the 0.64 handle, trading down to 0.6384 before regaining 0.64 to trade at 0.6402 this morning. In equities, the two European index’s both lost out -0.4% a piece. Today in data, we will see the German Final CPI m/m, expected to come in at -0.5%. We will also see German ZEW Economic Sentiment, and ZEW Economic Sentiment out of the Eurozone. Looking ahead, a quiet week until the Thursday evening ECB meeting, promising to be a defining moment in the bloc’s fight against inflation. It was late to the party, but once it arrived it quickly started playing catch up culminating in a 75 basis point rate hike. The belief is that it won’t have to go as far as others in raising rates, with the terminal rate currently believed to be around 3%. That means the central bank is expected to already slow the pace of tightening on Thursday, with a 50 basis point hike, followed by another 100 over the first three meetings in the new year.
GBP
AUDGBP has dipped this morning, trading relatively range bound between 0.5480 and 0.5495 this morning. In equities, the FTSE follows suit of its European counterparts, dipping -0.4% at the close. Monday started on a positive note, as GDP for October climbed 0.5%, up from -0.6% in September and ahead of the 0.4% consensus. The UK economy is likely in recession, and the markets are bracing for a winter of discontent on the public sector front. Many workers, faced with the ever-increasing cost of living, could go on strike in order to demand higher wages. This could trigger a cost-wage spiral, which would be a massive headache for the BoE as it would exacerbate inflationary pressures. With inflation already at a staggering 11.1%, the BoE has little choice but to continue raising rates, and the markets have priced in 50 basis points at the final meeting of the year on Thursday. The cash rate which is currently at 3.0%, is expected to continue to rise in 2023, with forecasts ranging from 3.50% to 4.75%.
NZD
AUDNZD trades lower this morning, maintaining its steady decline over the past few weeks, settling in at the 1.05 level and trading at 1.0570 this morning. FPI m/m (Food Price Index) was released, indicating that food prices were flat in November 2022. After seasonal adjustment, they were up 1.0 percent. In November 2022 compared with October 2022: fruit and vegetable prices fell 4.7 percent (up 0.9 percent after seasonal adjustment), meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 1.2 percent, grocery food prices rose 1.1 percent (up 0.8 percent after seasonal adjustment), non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 0.8 percent, and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.5 percent. Looking ahead, tomorrow we have Current Account data from across the ditch, with a forecast of -10.20B.