Greenback Slump Continues
AUD
AUD had mixed performance across the board, although the growth outlook remains under pressure. Asian equities were higher on the close with the Hang Seng the star performer up +1.9%, the ASX, the Nikkei and the Shanghai Comp were up +0.6% a piece. The ASX benefited from the broad rally, led by Energy which finished +1.4% higher. Commodities were mixed, with Gold up +0.1%, Silver down -0.3%, Iron Ore up +0.1%, and Copper left the others in the dust with a gain of +2.5%. China’s effort to extricate itself from the economically strangling zero-case Covid-19 policy seems to be presenting several challenges. Another policy tilt from Beijing saw an easing of restrictions for some Australian exports, such as coal, as the frosty relationship between the two countries might be thawing. Australian Building Approvals declined by -9.0%, a shock print as expectations were for a +0.1% increase. This aligns with the recent CoreLogic Home Value Index, in which home prices saw a decline of -8.40 per cent, breaking the previous record in peak-to-trough declines, when home values fell -8.38 per cent between October 2017 and June 2019. No domestic data today, with tomorrow’s CPI y/y print the main event for the week.
USD
AUDUSD trades higher this morning, continuing its rally which begun Friday evening, obliterating the 0.69 resistance level and reaching almost 5-month-highs of 0.6949, before consolidating and becoming range-bound between 0.6903 and 0.6949. The pair has managed to maintain most of its gains, trading at 0.6921 this morning. Wall St continued higher on Monday’s close to start the week with the NASDAQ trading up 1%, and the S&P 500 advanced 0.4%. US yields edged lower while crude oil gained 1.5% to $74.90 a barrel. Renewed hopes of a Fed pivot and lower yields assisted in driving USD lower, fueling an equity rally and establishing a risk-on sentiment which supported the Aussie. The Aussie Dollar is seen as linked to global growth due to the nature of exports underpinning it. In the week ahead, commentary around US monetary policy could see more wild swings in AUDUSD, including Jerome Powell’s speech this evening. US consumer inflation expectations fall to 5% (from 5.2%) ahead of US CPI on Friday – has inflation peaked?
EUR
AUDEUR trades lower this morning, having briefly touched over 1-month-highs of 0.6497 and falling just short of breaking through the 0.65 resistance level, before reversing most of its gains and trading at 0.6441 at time of writing. With the Euro at the upper end of its range, the market may be reluctant to push it much higher without new incentives. European equities were higher on the close with the DAX up +1.3%, and the CAC gained +0.7%. The softer than expected eurozone December CPI preliminary print did not change expectation for the trajectory of ECB policy. ECB President Lagarde has pre-committed to a 50 bp hike at the next meeting on February 2. More interesting the market leans strongly in favor of another 50 bp hike at the following meeting on March 16. Germany November industrial production rose by +0.2% instead of the +0.3% projected and the October series was revised to show a -0.4% decline rather than the +0.1% initially reported. The aggregate industrial production figure for the Eurozone is due at the end of the week and a +0.5% gain is expected after a -2.0% fall in October. Earlier today, the Eurozone reported that the Unemployment rate in November was unchanged at the cyclical low of 6.5%. Recall that in December 2019, before Covid, the Eurozone unemployment rate was 7.5%.
GBP
AUDGBP trades lower this morning, having reached almost 2-month-highs of 0.5711 before shifting direction and steadily declining to lows of 0.5654, but managed to recover slightly to trade at 0.5671 at time of writing. The FTSE posted modest gains, increasing by +0.3% at the close. MPC member Pill crossed the wires last night, and it’s clear Pill sees risks from higher natural gas prices with a tight labor market, adverse labor supply developments and goods market bottlenecks. He stated “domestic factors will strongly influence my monetary policy decisions in the coming months.” He also mentioned that “if necessary, MPC will respond forcefully.” The next decision is Feb 2 and the consensus is a 69% chance of a 50 bps hike with the remainder at 25 bps. Today in data, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y is forecast to come in at 2.4%. Looking ahead, MPC member Mann will speak on Thursday evening.
NZD
AUDNZD trades slightly lower this morning, trading within the ranges of 1.0810 and 1.0865. No data of note out of Kiwiland yesterday or today, with ANZ Commodity Prices m/m due out tomorrow with a previous result of -3.9%.