Risk Reversal Shuns AUD
AUD
Global risk sentiment soured overnight, turning the recent risk-on fuelled AUD strength on its heels, with the Aussie being down against its major currency pairs. This is off the back of a red trading session for most equities around the world aside from Asian and British stocks, showing minor gains. Commodities were also in the red with Gold -0.1%, Silver -0.2%, Iron -1.2%, Copper -1.1%. Australian nominal Retail Sales are released today and are likely to have fallen in December following sharp rises in some categories (household goods, clothing, department stores) in November amid Black Friday and other sales events. A few pieces of data from China later this week, with Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs being the key takeaways.
USD
The plucky Aussie dollar reverses its recent upward trajectory overnight against the USD, opening lower at 0.7059 at the time of writing. This push downward is off the back of risk sentiment deteriorating with the NASDAQ trading -1.7%, the S&P 500 -1.1% and the Dow Jones -0.6% late in the North American day. Also helping this market movement was US strength off the back of US yields pushing higher ahead of this week’s FOMC rate decision, while crude oil was trading -2.4% at $77.75 a barrel. No US data until tonight with the CB Consumer Confidence printing tonight, currently having an increase priced in. The market is holding its breath until early Thursday morning with the Federal Reserve's first interest rate announcement for 2023. A 25bp increase from 4.50% to 4.75% is currently forecasted as the most likely outcome.
EUR
The AUDEUR pair is down over the last session, sitting at 0.6494 at the time of writing, off the turn in market risk sentiment in the last session. Little in the way of European data in the last 24 hours, though there was some Spanish Flash CPI y/y data printing at a 5.8% above the expected 4.9%, and German Prelim GDP q/q printing below the flat expectation at -0.2%. A litany of data for the Eurozone is printing this week – with the highest market moving potential pieces being the the flash estimate of the Eurozone CPI y/y currently pricing in a rate of 9% and the Core Eurozone flash estimate being priced in at 5.1%. These estimates may inform the ECB’s interest rate decision in the early hours of Friday morning – 50bps is currently priced in as the most likely outcome, moving the central banks rates from 2.5% to 3%.
GBP
The Aussie Pound pair is trading lower this morning, sitting at 0.5702 at the time of typing. This movement is off the back of Aussie weakness fuelled by risk sentiment. A few pieces of data out tonight for the British Isles, M4 Money Supply m/m, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals m/m. However, the main market mover this week will be the BOE interest rate announcement late on Thursday evening – with a 50bps increase pencilled in as the most likely outcome, taking their cash rate from 3.5% to 4%.
NZD
The AUDNZD pair has lost about 50bps since its high on Monday – trading at 1.0904 at the time of writing. Nothing in the way of data but the New Zealand Unemployment Rate and Employment Change are printing tomorrow morning – with outcomes penciled in at 3.3% (flat) and at 0.3% respectively. New Zealand’s largest city Auckland had a state of emergency called over the weekend, experiencing unprecedented flash floods, affecting over 5,000 homes and businesses, and having many major roads closed.