Aussie Rally Short-lived
AUD
The Aussie Dollar opens mostly down against majors despite yesterday’s rally off the back of China’s decision to re-permit Australian coal imports, potentially giving commodity currencies strength in the future. Asian equities finished the session higher with the CSI 300 the best performer up +1.9%, while the ASX gained only +0.1%, weighed down by energy stocks which fell -1.3%. Yesterday’s PMI data out of China signaled a further fall in business activity across China’s service sector at the end of 2022, as ongoing efforts to curb the spread of Covid-19 continued to disrupt operations and dampen demand. No major domestic data until Wednesday’s CPI y/y on which all eyes will be turned. The general consensus is that inflation is near it’s peak & that the RBA will only effect two more interest rate hikes. Given Aussie inflation is consistent across the tradable & non-tradable sectors, economists believe it is most likely cost-driven (as opposed to wage-driven) & should therefore fall relatively quickly once the terminal rate is achieved.
USD
AUD/USD opens down at 0.6749 after yesterday’s rally, driven by AUD strength off China’s decision to re-permit Australian coal imports for a few major firms. Overnight, USD strength saw currencies move back into the middle of the ranges within which they started the year, while US equities fell slightly. ADP Employment for December printed at +235k, up from 182k & well above expectations of 150k, while weekly jobless claims beat expectations. Notably, the FED’s Bullard hit the wires suggesting that rates were getting close to being sufficiently restrictive and would become so in 2023, adding that inflations expectations are in line with the 2% goal. Tonight, we see the Unemployment Rate (expected at 3.7%) & the Non-Farm Employment Change (expected at +200k).
EUR
AUD/EUR opens at 0.6415 while European equities opened in the red with the Eurostoxx 50 down -0.45% & the FTSE 100 down -0.3%. Little in the way of data on the continent, while Russia suggested a 36h ceasefire in the Ukraine to observe Russian Christmas… No reported response from the Ukraine as of yet. Tonight, we see CPI Flash Estimates y/y data for the Eurozone with the headline figure expected at 9.6%, down from last month’s 10.1% in the face of warmly-welcomed falls in energy prices. The risk, as ECB President Lagarde noted, being that headline price pressures may increase later as government subsidies for energy end. Tellingly, the Core figure is expected at 5.1% (this figure excludes energy prices).
GBP
AUDGBP opens up at 0.5667 as the UK services sector moves towards stabilization. Cost pressures showed signs of weakening, with inflation rates down for both operating expenses and charges. Nonetheless, price pressures are still elevated & the business environment remains challenging. As a result, firms still exhibit a largely cautious attitude to hiring staff, which overall were left unchanged since November. Rishi Sunak recently announced 5 strategic targets for this year, including inflation-halving, stabilization debt to GDP and ensuring a return to growth. Ironically, the reduction in inflation may be the most attainable of these three, and the one in which the government has the most control. No major data ahead of next Friday’s GDP m/m figure.
NZD
AUDNZD opens down at 1.0835 with no data ahead of next week’s Commodity Prices m/m. Investors continue to grapple with the AUDNZD upward trend into the new year as interest rate differential continue to widen with the RBNZ’s aggressive rate hikes.