AUD Jumps After RBA 'Considered' Hike
AUD
The Aussie dollar starts today mostly in the green, opening higher against all major currencies bar the NZD. Likewise, Asian equities and commodities all performed well in yesterday’s session with all opening this morning higher with the exception of Natural Gas which lost -9.2%. Crude Oil gained +1.3%, Gold +0.6%, Silver +1%, Iron Ore +0.2%, and Copper +1.3%. On the equity front the ASX gained +0.8%, Shanghai Comp +0.1% and Nikkei +0.8%. Early yesterday we saw the release of the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes which brought AUD strength as the RBA Board 'considered' raising interest rates at the most recent meeting, although ultimately decided to hold steady at 4.35%. From China, today we will see the release of the 1-y and 5-y Loan Prime Rates as well as the tentative release of China’s Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y. Locally we will only see the MI Leading Index m/m in the morning.
USD
The AUDUSD breached new 6-month highs of 0.6774 this morning after slightly dropping off to open this morning at 0.6761. Wall Street closed yesterday’s session in a uniform matter with Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all +0.5%. A quieter day on the data front yesterday having only seen some mid-tier housing data released in the form of NAHB Housing Market Index, Building Permits and Housing Starts which all came in either higher than forecasted or flat. FOMC Member Barkin also spoke where he reiterated the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024, assuming inflation keeps falling. Tonight, we have CB Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales to look forward to.
EUR
The AUDEUR crept slightly higher over yesterday's session, touching 6-month highs of 0.6170 and somewhat dropping off to open this morning at 0.6159. European equities also closed in the green with DAX +0.6%, and CAC +0.1%. No much in the way of data, only seeing the Final and Final Core CPI y/y, both coming in on expectation of 2.4% and 3.6% respectively. As the year wraps up, we see some more low-tier data tonight in the form German GfK Consumer Climate, German PPI m/m and Current Account.
GBP
The AUDGBP opens higher at 0.5309 after retracing from lows of 0.5287 overnight. British equities closed higher yesterday, with the FTSE +0.3%. Yesterday, we saw some mid-tier data releases with the 10-y Bond Auction and CBI Industrial Order Expectations both coming in slightly better than expectations. Tonight, we have a slew of mid-tier data including PPI Input and Out Put m/m, as well as RPI and HPI y/y. Tonight’s standout release will be the CPI y/y which is expected to slow down from 4.6% to 4.3% y/y.
NZD
The AUDNZD starts this morning slightly lower, opening at 1.0785. Yesterday morning we saw the release of their Trade Balance which came in worse than the forecasted -1200M at -1234M. We also saw the ANZ Business Confidence which dropped off slightly from a previous reading of 30.8 to 33.2. Early this morning the GDT Price Index was released which came in at 2.3% after a previous 1.6%. RBNZ Governor Orr also spoke this morning, indicating interest rates are sufficiently restricting Kiwi consumer spending, although core inflation measures are currently too high. No major data from NZ for the remainder of the week.