Has the US Labour Market Lost its Steam?

AUD

The Aussie dollar has given away gains from earlier in the week, opening lower against majors this morning off the back of yesterday's RBA interest rate pause. The ASX closed lower by -0.9%, Nikkei -1.4% and Hang Seng -1.9%. The RBA has left borrowers a little more relaxed ahead of the holiday period, having kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% yesterday ahead of their next meeting in February 2024. The central bank's forward guidance on rates remains vague, with Governor Bullock noting "Domestically, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms' pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight". We also had the Caixin Services PMI come in above expectations at 51.5, signaling further increases in activity and demand across China's services sector in November. Later this morning, we'll see the Aussie GDP q/q, expected to uptick +0.5%.
 

USD

The AUDUSD opens lower this morning at 0.6553 after yesterday's RBA interest rate pause brought about Aussie dollar weakness. Equities closed mixed with NASDAQ up 0.2%, S&P 500 down -0.1% and the Dow Jones down -0.2%. In the early morning session, we had the ISM Services PMI come in above expectations at 52.7 while the JOLTS Job Openings came in lower than expected at 8.73M which is at the lowest level since March 2021, potentially signaling the US labour market is losing steam. Tonight, we'll see the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, expected at +113k.
 

EUR

AUDEUR opened weaker in the morning session at 0.6069, having reached 0.6053 lows in the early hours. The DAX and CAC each gained 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. Yesterday, we had a great deal of lower tier data for the Eurozone with Final Services PMI’S out with the only piece of data coming in below expectations being the Spanish Services PMI at 51.0. A quiet week ahead for the Eurozone with continued releases for lower tier data.
 

GBP

AUDGBP opens weaker this morning at 0.5201, falling from 0.5238 yesterday. The FTSE gave up -0.3%. Yesterday, we had the Final Services PMI come in slightly above expectations of 50.5 to 50.9. A very quiet week ahead for the Pound this week including lower tier data releasing today being the BOE Financial Stability Report, FPC Statement, and the 10-y Bond Auction not expected to bring much movement to the Pound. Bank of England Governor Bailey is also due to hold a press conference surrounding the Financial Stability Report.
 

NZD

AUDNZD has furthered this week's losses, opening this morning at 1.0693. Yesterday, we had the ANZ Commodity Prices m/m which came in short at -1.3%. A quiet rest of the week for the Kiwi with scattered lower tier data throughout the week, including Manufacturing Sales q/q on Friday.