Busy Week of Economic Data Ahead
AUD
The Aussie Dollar opens mixed against the majors, with no major moves over the weekend. Looking at the equities, the Asian equities were mixed on the close with the Hang Seng down 1.4% and Nikkei +0.8%. The ASX finished Friday’s session up 0.6%, led by technology and financial stocks. The metal commodities saw soft gains, with Copper and Gold up 1%, Silver up 1.4% and Iron Ore down -0.6%. Looking to the data, it was a light weekend for Australia, with only the G7 meeting happening since Friday and throughout the weekend. Looking to today's releases, there is no data to be released today out of Australia. The low data trend continues throughout the week with no major pieces being released. Market focus this week will be on the RBNZ rate decision and UK CPI on Wednesday, followed by US Fed Meeting Minutes on Wednesday night (see below for details)
USD
The AUDUSD had a light rally since Friday, opening today at 0.6649 in what was a generally subdued trading session. A soft finish on Wall St. last week saw the Dow Jones close -.3%, the NASDAQ -.2%, and the S&P 500 -.1%. Looking to the data releases, Existing Home Sales continued the trend lower, coming in at 4.28m, previously 4.43m. On the weekend. Fed Chair Powell hit the wires saying that price stability was the foundation of a strong economy and that inflation was currently too far above the 2% objective. He also noted that the Fed was committed to bringing inflation back to target and a failure to do so would prolong economic pain. Today there is no US data being released, however, there is plenty being released over the week. Events to look out for are the Flash PMI data being released on Tuesday and the GDP p/p with the Unemployment Claims and the FOMC meeting minutes on Thursday. With so much vital economic data being released this week, the AUDUSD currency pair has a higher chance for volatility and larger moves.
EUR
AUDEUR opens slightly lower this morning at 0.6144, with the market lightly rallying over Friday, giving back the gains and some into the weekend. European equity markets shed gains into the close though ended the day higher with gains on the CAC and DAX near 0.7%. The German PPI m/m came out at 0.3%, beating the tipped -0.5% and the previous -1.4%. ECB President Lagarde spoke on the weekend, giving a pre-recorded video at the central bank of Brazil’s seminar on Central Banking. Today there is no data being released from the Eurozone, however tomorrow there is French and German Flash PMI pairs being released which could add some volatility on this cross.
GBP
The AUDGBP opens slightly higher at 0.5340, with a similar story to the EUR, with a soft rally on Friday with gains being giving back on the weekend. The equities slowed modest gains with the FTSE up 0.2%. Looking to the data there was GfK Consumer Confidence released on Friday, coming in as forecasted at -27, marginally higher than the previous -30 but still firmly in pessimistic territory. Today there is only one piece of data being released, the Rightmove HPI m/m which was released at 9am, which came out at 1.8% higher then the previous month’s 0.2%. no further data is being released today, however there is a lot being released this week. Notable data released are the Flash PMI’s being released tomorrow and the CPI y/y released on Wednesday.
NZD
The AUDNZD opens lower today at 1.0600, with the pair still being stuck in the downward channel, pushing into the 1.059’s early on the weekend, with a slight rally to sit back above the 1.06 this morning. Looking to the news, on Friday the Kiwi Trade Balance came in at 427m, much higher than the -1310 forecasted and the previous -1586m previously seen. This shows more exports are occurring in New Zealand, which increases the demand for the NZ Dollar. The Credit Card Spending y/y came in at 11.4%, lower than the 19.7% seen in the last reading. There is no data being released today, but there is notable data on Wednesday, where the new cash rate will be announced, markets currently pricing in 35bps worth of a hike.