Currency Markets Trading Tight Ranges
AUD
The Aussie dollar has gained a little bit of ground against most majors after mining and banking stock rallies saw the ASX end yesterday’s session up +0.9% (the largest daily gain in 7 weeks). Asian equities were mixed, with the Hang Seng falling -1.0% and the Nikkei gaining +1.0%, while a steady day for commodities saw gold and iron ore trade relatively flat. Another quiet day ahead with little market-moving data, wherein domestic Building Approvals are expected to show further softness in April. The focus remains on tomorrow’s CPI y/y, expected at +6.4%, which will play a key role in the RBA’s interest rate decision next Tuesday. Last month’s +25 bump to 3.85% caught most by surprise and will no doubt be a point of discussion when Governor Philip Lowe is grilled at a Senate Committee meeting in Canberra tomorrow morning
USD
A very quiet session overnight saw the AUDUSD traverse an 11-pip range, opening slightly up at 0.6542 while Wall St remained closed for the Memorial Day holiday. Tonight, CB Consumer Confidence is expected to fall from 101.3 to 99.1. The index is based on a survey of approximately 3,000 US households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions. Whenever the data arrives significantly off-expectations, we tend to see brief volatility in FX markets. Debt ceiling drama also persists, where Congress as largely expected to raise the limit for the 79th time since 1960.
EUR
An uneventful evening saw the AUDEUR trade a 9-pip range to open today’s session at 0.6106, while the DAX and CAC each fell -0.2%. Today’s focus lies on Spanish Flash CPI y/y, expected at +3.6% (down from last month’s +4.1%), while tomorrow’s ECB Financial Stability Review (an assessment of conditions and risks in the financial system) may bring about some volatility.
GBP
AUDGBP opens up at 0.5294 after having reached 0.5302 in the late PM, while solid performance among equities saw the FTSE close up +0.7%. A quiet week for the Pound will see Monetary Policy Committee member Mann speak tomorrow evening (talking about central banks, inflation, monetary policy etc.), while the nationwide House Price Index on Wednesday is expected to show a -0.5% m/m decline.
NZD
A quiet overnight session saw AUDNZD gain minimal ground, opening at 1.0803 after this morning’s Building Consents data indicated a -2.6% m/m decline. Notably, the actual number of new dwellings consented was 45,962, down -9.3% from the year ended April 2022 given reduced demand as Kiwi households & firms struggle with the past year’s sizeable interest rate hiking campaign. The extent to which firms are struggling may be reflected by tomorrow’s ANZ Business Confidence index (based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, service providers, retailers and agricultural firms).