Quiet Start to the Week for Currencies

AUD

The Aussie continues its lethargic start to the week, flat or down against its major trading pairs over the last day in very quiet trading conditions. The ASX also moved down slightly, losing 0.3%, and likewise movements in AUD-linked commodities were only slight. Today, the Chinese CB leading Index m/m will be released, a combined reading of 8 economic factors, including consumer expectation, export orders, loans and imports of capital goods. In the previous month this saw a -0.6% drop.  Markets will be keeping a close eye on the Australian CPI y/y figure being released tomorrow, especially with the next RBA interest rate decision happening in one week from today. The last CPI reading showed a surprise increase in inflation from 6.5% to 6.8% y/y.

USD

The AUDUSD is flat from Monday morning, currently trading at 0.6677, reaching a high of 0.6693 over yesterday afternoon. Also, a quiet start to the week for US data, with no major data being released for Monday. Some larger movements in the stock market overnight, with the NASDAQ losing -1.2%, S&P500 losing 0.5% and the Dow Jones flat. Tonight, Core Durable goods orders m/m and Durable Goods Orders will released – leading indicators of production for the country, with 0% change and a -0.8% change expected respectively. CB Consumer Confidence is also printing at midnight, with an improved figure of 103.9 expected vs the last figure of 102.9.

EUR

The AUD is down very slightly against the Euro for the start of this week, sitting at 0.6120, trading a very minimalistic 26pip range over the past 24 hours. German ifo Business Climate printed last night, coming in worse than expected with 88.5, vs the expectation of 90.7. This figure, the most prominent indicator for the German economy, falling for the second consecutive month, after a 6-month expansion. A weaker-than-hoped-for Chinese reopening, a looming US recession and ongoing monetary policy tightening seem to be the factors weighing on German business sentiment. The Bundesbank released their monthly report last night, claiming the German economy has bottomed out and a slight GDP growth is expected for Q2 2023, and that the German inflation rate is to slow further in the coming months. ECB president Lagarde is due to speak at an ECB forum on central banking tonight. No data out of any of the other major EU countries for the beginning of this week.

GBP

The Aussie and Pound Sterling pair are flat over previous day’s worth of trading, currently trading at 0.5248.  CBI realized sales for the UK printed last night, coming in far below expectations at -9 vs the penciled in -6. The BRC Shop Price Index y/y was released showing a drop in the retailer inflation rate, coming in at 8.4%, to the previous month’s figure of 9%. Bank of England member Tenreyro is speaking at the ECB forum tonight.

NZD

The Aussie is down against the NZD, sitting at 1.0830. falling about 33bps over the past 24 hours, but continuing a -2% fall (over 2 cents) over the 7 days. A very quiet start to the week for the New Zealand Economic Calendar, with no data until Thursday with the ANZ business confidence figure.