Aussie CPI to Rock the AUD?
AUD
The Aussie dollar rebounded overnight, gaining ground against all majors except the Kiwi dollar. The Aussie dollar received a boost from higher commodity prices with Copper up 1.3%, Iron Ore up 0.8%, and Silver and Gold both up 0.1%. All eyes on Australian CPI at 11:30am today, then Building Approvals m/m and construction work done. Macquarie Strategy expect disinflation in the monthly CPI indicator to continue, with the year-ended rate falling from +5.4% to +5.2%. The headline print should be lifted by higher electricity prices, but excluding volatile items, inflation is likely to ease, although the RBA keeps the door open to more rate hikes. Regardless, the RBA have been leaning towards growth concerns, rather than inflationary concerns, in the past few meetings and so a figure on-or-below expectations wouldn't incentivise the central bank to hike further.
USD
The AUDUSD pairing rebounds overnight opening at 0.6482 after weak JOLTs Job Openings and Consumer Confidence data sent Treasury yields down double-digits, with the Fed no longer seen likely to hike again before cutting rates in 2024. Wall St. remained in positive territory with the Nasdaq up 1.8%, the S&P 500 up 1.4%, and the Dow Jones up 0.8%. Tonight's main focus is the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and the second estimate of US Q2 GDP, including real GDP revisions. The report will include the first release of real gross domestic income for Q2 2023, which may garner heightened attention. This alternative measure of US economic activity, based on incomes, has contracted y/y in both Q4 2022 and Q1 2023.
EUR
The AUDEUR opens a touch higher this morning after a late-night rally, followed by a fall in the early morning at 0.5956. European equities remained in the green with the DAX up 0.9%, and the CAC up 0.7%. No major news out the Eurozone yesterday with only the German GfK Consumer Climate being released, coming in worse than expected at -25.5. Looking to today, we have a few CPI releases with both the German Prelim CPI m/m, and Spanish Flash CPI y/y set to released later this afternoon.
GBP
The AUDGBP opens higher this morning after an overnight rally at 0.5125. We had the British Retail Consortium Shop Price Index y/y come through yesterday, showing that UK shop price inflation had fallen to the slowest rate in 10 months, with the lowest rate of growth since last October. The FTSE on the other hand finished in the Green up 1.7%. No major news out of the UK today with only the M4 Money Supply m/m, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals m/m set to be released later this evening.
NZD
The AUDNZD pairing gave back recent gains overnight, opening 30 pips lower this morning at 1.0852. We had the Building Consents m/m released earlier this morning which showed the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented fell 5.2 percent, after rising 3.4 percent in June 2023. No further news today, while tomorrow we have ANZ Business Confidence data to look out for.