AUD Starts the Week in Familiar Ranges

AUD

The Aussie Dollar opens slightly higher against major currencies this morning despite Iron Ore giving up -1.3%. The ASX closed 0.05% higher, with gains across mining and energy stocks offsetting tech and property losses, while Gold and Silver gained 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. On Friday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI printed at 48.2 (slightly lower than the previous 49.6), which saw the AUD fluctuate slightly. Notably, the Flash Services PMI came in slightly above previous levels from 47.8 to 50.5, indicating minor expansion in the Aussie services sector. No meaningful data today or tomorrow with all eyes on Wednesday’s Aussie CPI y/y Report, where the headline figure is expected to tick up 0.3% to 5.2% y/y. Last week's RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes indicated the RBA considered hiking interest rates at the September meeting, so any surprise uptick on Wednesday could open the door to markets pricing in the further hikes. This may strengthen the Aussie Dollar.

USD

AUDUSD has gained ground since Friday morning, peaking at 0.6466 on Friday evening before falling off slightly to open at 0.6442. Wall St. finished lower Friday to cap of its worst week since March, with the S&P 500 -0.25%, NASDAQ flat and the Dow -0.3%. While the Manufacturing PMI arrived slightly higher than expected at 48.9, the Services Sector surprisingly converged to 50.2, indicating further loss of service sector momentum is weighing on overall US economic performance. A quiet star to the week for the US Dollar with the first major piece of data being the CB Consumer Confidence and New Home sales in Wednesday's early hours.

EUR

AUDEUR rallied throughout Friday, peaking at 0.6072 in the evening before falling off over the weekend to open at 0.6049. The DAX gave up 0.1% while the CAC fell down 0.4%. European PMIs arrived mixed and failed to meaningfully impact AUDEUR. While notably the German Services PMI printed in at 49.8, ending third quarter in contraction as demand for goods and services fell sharply. Tonight, we'll see German ifo Business Climate data while ECB President Lagarde is due to speak before the Committe on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels.

GBP

AUDGBP gained some much-needed ground over the weekend, peaking at 0.5269 before retracing a tad to open at 0.5262. The FTSE posted 0.1% gains. UK PMIs arrived mixed and failed to meaningfully impact on the Pound, the notable movement being the Flash Manufacturing PMI arriving at 44.2 ahead of expectations at 43.3, although the UK recession risk grows as companies cut staff at a sharp pace. This evening, we'll see low-tier CBI Realised Sales data.

NZD

The Aussie Kiwi fell off over the weekend, touching lows at 1.0789 before climbing slightly to settle flat at 1.0810 this morning. The NZD Trade Balance on Friday morning was quite surprising, coming in at -2291M with expectations at -351M. A quiet week ahead with only ANZ Business Confidence data on Wednesday.