RBA Set to Hold Rates at Lowe's Final Meeting
AUD
The Aussie dollar opens the week mixed against majors after varying performance among commodifies saw Iron Ore up 1.8%, Copper up 0.8% while Silver and Gold were down -1% and flat respectively. Asian equities managed to stay mostly positive with the Hang Seng gaining 0.7% and the Nikkei 0.3%. The ASX dropped -0.4% as Health Care slumped -1.4%, while Energy stocks recouped some recent losses. No Major news set to be released today with only the MI Inflation Gauge m/m, ANZ Job Advertisements m/m, and Company Operating Profits q/q. Focus remains on tomorrow's RBA Cash Rate decision where markets are almost fully-pricing in a pause, while 26 out of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect rates to remain on hold. This comes after last month's annual CPI metric printed at 4.9%, being the slowest rate of inflation in nearly 1.5 years. More broadly, a number of ‘soft’ employment and wage data has seen markets shift towards the view that the RBA’s tightening cycle is finished. For these reasons, any surprise bump tomorrow should give the Aussie dollar a sizeable boost.
USD
The AUDUSD lost the 0.65 handle over the weekend to open at 0.645 after Friday evening's Non-Farm Employment Change data printed at 187k, up from a negatively revised 157k and better than expectations of 170k. On the other hand, US unemployment rose sharply in August to 3.8% (expectations were 3.5%) as the job market supposedly cools off the back of the past year's Fed tightening cycle. Wall St finished mixed after the news, with the Dow Jones +0.3%, S&P 500 +0.2% and the Nasdaq down -0.1%. Bank Holiday in the US today ahead of a relatively quiet week for the US dollar. The only notable release will be Thursday evening's Unemployment Claims release.
EUR
AUDEUR opens slightly higher this morning at 0.5988 after a gradual increase over the weekend. Last Friday's mixed PMI data out the Eurozone caused the AUDEUR to hit highs of 0.5991 before falling again. European equities saw a drop with DAX and CAC both in the red at -0.7% and -0.3% respectively. No major data releases today, although ECB President Lagarde is due to speak at an event hosted by the European Economics and Financial Centre in London.
GBP
AUDGBP remained mostly flat over the weekend to open this morning at 0.5123. UK equities piggybacked off of the European markets positive open with the FTSE impressing up 0.3%. No news set to be released out of the UK today, although tomorrow we have the BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y, and the Final Services PMI.
NZD
A volatile weekend sees AUDNZD open at 1.0852, down from this time Friday. This morning's NZ Overseas Trade Index q/q arrived better than expected at 0.4% although didn't move markets. No further news set to be released today, while tomorrow morning we have the ANZ Commodity Prices m/m.