AUD Mixed to Start 2024
AUD
The Aussie dollar had a mixed result for the first business day of the year against the majors, with the commodities all closing down yesterday, with Gold down 0.1%, Silver down 0.5% Iron Ore down 0.7% and Copper down 0.6%. Asian Equities had a mixed offering yesterday, with the ASX up 0.5% and the Shanghai Comp down 0.4%. Yesterday out of China we had Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which came in higher at 50.8, expected at 50.4 from a previous 50.7. Locally we had Commodity Prices y/y come in higher at -10.7%, higher than the previous reading of -12.8% although still negative. There is only one more piece of local data out this week on Thursday being China's Caixin Services PMI, expected to slightly increase from 51.5 to 51.6. Focus will be on US data which has a fast start to the year (see below).
USD
The AUDUSD opens lower today, with the pair taking a tumble overnight, falling through the 0.68 barrier to a 2-week low, opening this morning at 0.6760. Wall Street took a hit yesterday, with the DOW JONES down 0.1%, S&P 500 down 0.7% and the NASDAQ down 1.8%. To the data, overnight we had the Final Manufacturing PMI come in lower at 47.9, with expectations at 48.4 from a previous 48.2. Construction Spending m/m came in lower at 0.4%, expected at 0.6% from a previous 1.2%. Tonight, we have FOMC Member Barkin Speaking about the economic outlook, being the first Fed speaker this year it may have some added weight. Later tonight there is ISM Manufacturing PMI expected in increase to 47.2 from 46.7 and JOLTS Job Openings expected to increase from 8.73M to 8.84M. There's a steady flow of US data this week, culminating with the Non-farm Payrolls on Friday night, so volatility is definitely possible despite being so early in the year.
EUR
AUDEUR opens slightly higher today, with a rally yesterday morning pushing the pair to touch the 0.62 barrier before retracing to this morning’s open of 0.6179. The European Equities where soft into the close, with the DAX up 0.1% and the CAC down 0.2%. Last night we had Spanish, French, German and Final Manufacturing PMI data released, with all coming in at expectations and on par with the previous reading. The Italian Manufacturing PMI was the only reading that came in higher at 45.3, with expectations at 44.3 from a 44.4. These readings where all below 50, showing that there is wide scale economic contraction in the Eurozone in the high interest rate environment, which will further add pressure to the ECB to consider rate cuts this year. Tonight, we have German Unemployment Change, expected to decrease from 22k to 20k.
GBP
The AUDGBP is up slightly in the past 24 hours, with the pair having a light overnight rally that was mostly retraced to this morning’s open of 0.5355. Looking to the British Equities, the FTSE was slightly red into the close, down 0.2%. To the data, yesterday we had BRC Shop Price Index y/y, which came in unchanged at 4.3%, Final Manufacturing PMI came in slightly lower at 46.2, with expectations that it would remain unchanged at 46.4. There is no data that will be released today.
NZD
The AUDNZD opens higher this morning, pushing through the 1.08 barrier in the afternoon, then moving mostly sideways overnight to this morning’s open of 1.0813. GDT Price Index came out last night lower at 1.2%, previously at 2.3%. There is no further data for the remainder of the week.