Spotlight on UK Jobs Data
AUD
The AUD opens mixed against majors, being higher against the Euro and Pound although lower against the USD with the Greenback strengthening off hawkish US central bank commentary overnight. To Asian equities, the Shanghai Comp gained +2.1%, Nikkei +0.6% and ASX +0.5%. Commodities were mixed with Crude Oil the biggest mover at -2.2%. Natural Gas +1.5%, Gold and Silver Flat. Not much out today locally today. Tentatively out of China today will be Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y. The AUD continues to be weighed down by what was interpreted as unsatisfactory Chinese stimulus over the weekend, including weaker-than-expected Chinese consumer and producer inflation figures. All eyes will be on Australia's employment data this Thursday, including the Unemployment Rate and Employment Change figures.
USD
AUDUSD opens today lower at 0.6721 after hitting lows of 0.6701 with a quiet session yesterday given the US Columbus Day Bank Holiday. Various FOMC Members spoke last night, with Waller indicating the need for 'more caution' ahead when lowering interest rates. The Federal Reserve Governor signaled that further interest rate cuts will be less aggressive than the big move in September, with the USD strengthening a little in the aftermath. A positive night to start the week saw equities hit all-time highs with the Nasdaq closing +0.9%, the S&P 500 +0.8%, and the Dow Jones +0.5%. Tonight, Empire State Manufacturing Index out at 1130pm. Then more FOMC Members speaking. Major data out on Thursday with their Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims. A stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report might not be greeted too positively by the markets as it would further dampen rate cut bets.
EUR
AUDEUR opens a little higher this morning at 0.6160 with a bit of movement overnight seeing lows of 0.6143 and highs of 0.6170. It a quiet night in terms of Eurozone data, with only German Baba President Nagel speaking. Equities were a little flat with the DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.3%. Low tier data out tonight. German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the biggest news today. Forecasted 10.2 (Prev 3.6). All eyes will be on the ECB’s Rate Decision on Thursday night. Markets are currently expecting the ECB to cut interest rates by a further 25 bps. The ECB’s stance started to shift following the disappointing PMIs and the slide in headline inflation below 2%.
GBP
AUDGBP opens a tad higher at 0.5144 after touching lows of 0.5141 overnight. The FTSE gained +0.5% overnight. This afternoon, we'll see the UK Claimant Count Change forecast (20.2k), Average Earning Index 3m/y (forecast 3.8% from 4.0%) and Unemployment Rate (forecast 4.1%). Markets will focus on wage growth and the average weekly earnings. While these continue to ease, some of the Bank of England Members are concerned that wage setting behaviour has changed for good.
NZD
AUDNZD opens lower this morning at 1.1030. No news today for the Kiwi. Tomorrow’s quarterly inflation report is released, and traders will want to see it move closer to 2% to keep hopes of another RBNZ 50bp cut alive. Inflation is forecasted to have risen +0.7% in the previous quarter.