Safe-Haven Flows Support Greenback
AUD
The Aussie Dollar opens mainly up this morning against most of the majors bar the USD, after shifts in risk sentiment spurred USD buyers. Asian equities continued higher yesterday, with the Nikkei+1.9%, Han Seng +2.4%, Shenzhen +8% and the ASX closed +0.7%. Commodities were mainly up with Crude Oil +3.2%, Gold +0.4%, Silver +0.6% and Iron Ore +0.5%. No news out of China for the remainder of the week as they have their Golden Week holiday. Yesterday, at home we had AU Retail Sales m/m which came in at 0.7% which was above expectations of 0.4%. The surprise rebound comes after a soft July as unusually warm weather brought forward spring spending, a possible sign consumers are dipping into extra income from recent sizable tax cuts. Today, we have some low tier data coming out with the Ai group Industry Index. The rest of the week is looking pretty slow data wise, with Balance of Trade figures coming out tomorrow and Home Loans on Friday.
USD
The AUDUSD pair opens lower this morning at 0.6883 after Iran fires missiles at Israel and risk sentiment declines. The pair got as high as 0.6934 yesterday then hitting lows of 0.68575 as Iran missile strikes fuel havens. Wall St closed the day down with Dow Jones -0.4%, S&P 500 -0.9% and NASDAQ -1.5%. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came out yesterday at 47.3 vs expectations of 47, however that remained the lowest it’s been since June 2023. US also had ISM Manufacturing PMI figures that came out slightly below expectations as well as JOLTs Job Openings which came in higher than expectations. Markets now look ahead to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data as they pair bets between a 25 basis and 50 basis point cut by the Fed in November.
EUR
AUDEUR opens higher this morning at 0.6220 as the Euro Area annual inflation rate fell below expectations to 1.8%, which is its lowest since April 2021. European equities ended the day down with DAX -0.6% and CAC -0.8%. The inflation figures further solidify ECB President Largarde’s comments last week that inflation is now under the baseline predicted by the ECB. Investors have raised their bets on quicker cuts and markets have now priced an 85% chance of rate cut on Oct.17, up from 25% at the start of last week. The Euro Area has the Unemployment Rate coming out this evening which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.
GBP
AUDGBP opened up slightly higher this morning at 0.5182 after a slow news day in Great Britain. The FTSE closed the day up slightly at +0.5%. GB S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in yesterday on expectations at 51.5. No data points out of Britain today and the rest of the week is looking slow with some lower tier PMI figures being released on Thursday and Friday.
NZD
The AUDNZD pairing is up this morning at 1.0953, after trading as low as 1.0893 yesterday before lifting off the back of Australia's stronger-than-expected Retail Sales figures. It’s a very slow data week in NZ this week with nothing of note. Markets are however now pricing a 67% chance of a half point rate cut at the RBNZ’s October meeting after they delivered their first rate cut of 25 bps in the August meeting. The RBNZ key rate currently sits at 5.25%.