Sentiment Drives AUD Lower
AUD
The AUD kicks off the week lower against most majors, weighed by deteriorating global risk sentiment given escalations in the Middle East as well as the upcoming US Presidential election. Asian equities closed the week mixed with the Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng +0.5% and the ASX 200 up a mere 0.1%. Commodities finished mixed with the biggest mover being Natural Gas (+3.5%) as well as Crude Oil and Iron Ore both +2%. Gold and Silver were both flat. It’s a quiet day locally to start the week, however, this week’s main event will be our CPI data out on Wednesday. The big four banks predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will land at an annual rate of 2.9% for the September quarter. That outcome would be the lowest since the March quarter of 2021 and well shy of its 7.8% peak at the end of 2022.
USD
AUDUSD opens lower this morning at 0.6606, hitting lows of 0.6599 over the weekend with the Greenback strengthening off renewed deterioration in global risk sentiment. Friday’s US Flash PMIs signaled a further solid rise in business activity to mark a robust start to the fourth quarter. Another mixed session on Wall Street to end the week saw the Nasdaq close +0.6%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Dow Jones -0.6%. It is a quiet night to start the week for the US with no data out. The next key releases will be CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings in Wednesday's early hours. The data-heavy week will also include the Core PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) on Thursday evening, as well as important labour market figures on Friday evening. These will be the main event for the week as the Federal Reserve shifts its gaze from inflation to the jobs market.
EUR
AUDEUR opens lower this week at 0.6119 after hitting lows of 0.6111 over the weekend. This can be attributed to lower risk sentiment. It was a quiet end of the week for the Euro with their German ifo Business Climate data released. The ifo institute said its business climate index increased to 86.5 in October from 85.4. This shows German business morale improved more than expected in October. Eurozone equities, DAX and CAC both flat to finish off the week. Tonight, we'll see CBI Realised Sales figures. It’s a quite start to the week with no data out today. Their main event this week will be their German Prelim CPI m/m, forecasted to rise .2%.
GBP
AUDGBP opens lower at 0.5093 after hitting lows of 0.5091 over the weekend. It was a quite finish to the week for the Pound. GFK Consumer Confidence fell to the lowest level since March. (-21). The FTSE fell .2% to finish off the week. Tonight, we'll see CBI Realised Sales figures. Not much out this week for the Pound. Their main event will be on Friday with Final Manufacturing PMI expected to stay flat.
NZD
AUDNZD opens higher this morning at 1.1051 after hitting highs of 1.1057. It was a quiet finish to the week for the Kiwi. Today is a Bank Holiday today for our Neighbours. It is another quiet week for them this week with no data until Thursday with ANZ Business Confidence.