US Jobs Report to Shape Fed Expectations
AUD
Little in the way of global data releases overnight results in a lack of guidance for the AUD, opening this morning mixed against the major currency pairs. Asian equities ended the day slightly higher with the ASX +0.1%, Shanghai Comp +0.1% and Nikkei +0.3%. Commodities were mainly lower with the exception of Crude Oil which was 0.1% higher, with Natural Gas -1.1%, Gold -0.7%, Silver -0.1%, Iron Ore -0.9% and Copper -0.1%. A quiet day for local data yesterday, having only seen the release of the Goods Trade Balance which beat both the previous reading and forecast of 4.53B, reading at 5.95B with little reaction from markets. Looking ahead the next major data release is China's inflation data on Monday.
USD
Stonger Unemployment Claims figures out of the US allowed the AUDUSD to tick slightly higher overnight, opening this morning at 0.6451. Wall Street closed mainly lower with the S&P 500 -0.1%, Dow Jones -0.4% and NASDAQ flat. US weekly Unemployment Claims printed at 224k, exceeding expectations as well as last week's 215k. The US Non-Farm employment report for November will be the highlight of the coming session. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain flat at 4.1%. The Non-Farm Employment Change is projected to rebound and come in at +218k, following a weak release in October due to an increase in strike activity and severe weather events. This release will shape expectations around Fed’s December policy decision - A 25bps cut is currently expected, although a stronger jobs report tonight would increase the chances of an interest rate hold.
EUR
The AUDEUR loses the 0.61 handle overnight, opening this morning lower at 0.6095 as the Euro strengthened off decreased political uncertainty in France. European equities ticked higher overnight with the DAX +0.6% and CAC +0.4%. Last night, we saw some mid-tier data out for the Eurozone in the form of Retail Sales m/m and French Industrial Production m/m, both missing forecasts. We also saw German Factory Orders m/m come in 0.5% better than expectations at -1.5%. Nothing major out tonight, more mid/low-tier data out in the form of German Trade balance and Industrial Production m/m and Eurozone Final Employment Change q/q.
GBP
Not much movement in the AUDGBP pair, opening this morning flat at 0.5044 with little hard-hitting data released over the past 24h. UK equites ticked slightly higher with the FTSE +0.2%. Yesterday, we saw the release of their Construction PMI, seeing the strongest reading for over 2.5 years, beating expectations of 53.5 reading at 55.2. No major reaction from markets as the response was dulled by new order growth eased to a five-month low and year-ahead business activity expectations were the least upbeat since October 2023. This afternoon, we'll see the Halifax HPI m/m - Providing insight into the UK housing market.
NZD
The AUDNZD starts the day off lower, opening this morning at 1.0957. No data out yesterday and no data to be released today. Next data release for the Kiwis is Wednesdays Manufacturing Sales q/q.