This Week: RBNZ Meeting & US Core PCE
AUD
The Aussie Dollar opens mixed across majors this morning after a light weekend on the data calendar. Equities ended Friday in the green with the ASX up 0.4%, Shanghai Comp up 0.6% and Nikkei up 2.2%. Closing last week off we had the CB Leading Index m/m and the New Home Prices m/m which fell -0.37% (prev. -0.45%), furthering the 7-month trend. Economist Nie Wen mentioned that “It may take more than a year for the entire property market to fully recover and rebound”. No data out for the Aussie or Chinese until Wednesday where all eyes will be on the Aussie CPI y/y, forecasted to climb to 3.6% from its previous level at 3.4%.
USD
The AUDUSD opens in the green this morning at 0.6565 after pushing towards the 0.66 mark over the weekend then pulling back. Wall Street closed in the mixed, with Nasdaq finishing the session down -0.3%, the Dow Jones up 0.2% and the S&P 500 flat. Quiet on the US data calendar on Friday, while the Fed's Waller reinforced the central bank is in 'no rush' to commence tightening monetary policy. Overnight, we'll see New Home Sales which are expected to print at 680K (prev. 664K). Wednesday morning will likely turn heads with Durable Goods Orders m/m and CB Consumer Confidence. The main US event this week will be Friday evening's Core PCE Price Index m/m, expected to tick-up +0.4% from the previous +0.2% reading.
EUR
The AUDEUR peaked at 0.6075 on Friday before opening in the green this morning at 0.6068, being higher than Friday morning. The Dax closed up 0.3% and the CAC ended up 0.7%. Closing off last week we saw a fair bit of lower tier Euro data with the exception of the German IFO Business Climate printing at 85.5 (on expectations). We also saw German Buba President Nagel Speak at a press conference in Frankfurt where he mentioned that “a premature cut could result in a worse outcome” and that “the inflation outlook is not clear enough yet”. No Data for the Eurozone today, but all eyes are now on Thursday's German Prelim CPI m/m which is forecasted to print at +0.5% (prev. +0.2%).
GBP
The AUDGBP opens down a tad this morning at 0.5157, seeing steady gains at the start of last week but giving these up in the back end. The FTSE closed in the green up 0.3%. Last Friday, we saw the GfK Consumer Confidence print in the red at -21 with forecasts at -18. Today, we’re having MPC Member Breeden and MPC Member Pill Speak at the Bank of England Agenda for Research Conference in London, the CBI Realized Sales which is forecasted to print at -33 from a previous -50.
NZD
The AUDNZD opens flat at 1.0589 despite Retails Sales q/q falling short of -0.2% expectations at -1.9%. The Core figure also landed at -1.7% from the forecasted -0.1%. No data today with the big event this week being the RBNZ's interest rate decision and Press Conference, on Wednesday. Economists at Rabobank made mention that “Despite the economy being in a technical recession, a week ago the local market was already making calls that the RBNZ might hike twice this year from the current level of 5.5%”, and “a shock rate hike would send ripples right the way round the rest of Western bond markets”. Regardless, the general consensus is that the RBNZ will hold at 5.5%.