Chinese PMIs Today

AUD

The Aussie Dollar has bounced back to end the week a tad stronger than yesterday's open. This comes despite Aussie Retail Sales m/m falling short of expectations at 1.1% (exp. 1.6%), with the uptick felt across the economy as all retail industries posted gains. Asian equities mostly closed in the green with the ASX +0.5%, Shanghai Comp +1.9%, and the Nikkei -0.1%. Commodities followed suit with Copper +0.1%, Iron Ore 1.2%, Silver +0.9%, and Gold -0.5%. Today we have our Commodity Prices y/y set for release at 4:30pm, however, all eyes will be focused on China’s Manufacturing PMI at 12:30pm which is expected to dip to 49.0 from the previous 49.2. This mainly reflects the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday, which led to fewer working days in February (18 in Feb, vs. 22 in Jan).
 

USD

The AUDUSD rallied overnight, reaching peaks of 0.6531 before opening this morning at 0.6497 after some poor performing US data with Unemployment Claims coming through higher than expected at 215K, Core PCE Price index m/m meeting expectations at +0.4% m/m and Pending Home Sales m/m decreasing from 48.1 to 44.0. The Core PCE rate of 0.4% m/m is double what the Fed wants to see, although cooling incomes and softer spending suggests inflation will moderate again in the coming months, leaving the door open to a potential June Fed rate cut. Wall Street closed mostly higher with the S&P 500 +0.3%, NASDAQ +0.6% and Dow flat. Tonight's focus will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, ISM Manufacturing Prices, and FOMC Member Waller Speaking.
 

EUR

The AUDEUR bounced back and regained the 0.60 handle overnight after German Retail Sales m/m and German Prelim CPI m/m both underperformed, coming in at -0.4% and 0.4% respectively. The rate opens at 0.6014. European equities were mixed into the close with the DAX +0.4% and the CAC -0.3%. We have a myriad of data releases today out of the Eurozone, however, the key events will be the Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate, and CPI Flash Estimate y/y set for release tonight. The Core metric is expected at +2.9% y/y, while the headline figure is expected at +2.5% y/y. Economists don't expect the figures to justify a change in the ECB's narrative at next week's meeting. ECB President's most recent speech at the EU Parliament confirmed the central bank is still looking for further evidence of cooling inflation before acting on disinflationary expectations.
 

GBP
The AUDGBP opens slightly higher this morning at 0.5145 after the UK’s M4 Money Supply m/m (-0.1) and Net Lending to Individuals m/m (0.8B) came through lower than expected. The FTSE ended +0.1%. No major data out of the UK today with only the Nationwide HPI m/m set for release at 6pm.
 

NZD

The AUDNZD keeps its momentum opening higher this morning at 1.0676 after this morning’s Building Consents data came through much lower than previous at -8.8%. Later on, this morning Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr is conducting a press conference following the February monetary policy announcement, responding to media questions about why the RBNZ decided to keep the policy rate steady at 5.50% for the fifth meeting in a row.