Important Aussie Labour Data Today
AUD
The Australian Dollar opens a little higher against most majors (flat against the Euro) after slight improvements in risk sentiment overnight. Asian equities closed mixed with the ASX -0.1%, Shanghai Comp +2.1% and Nikkei -1.3%. Commodities were mainly lower with Crude Oil -3.1%, Natural Gas -5.7%, Gold -0.5%, Silver -0.4% and Iron Ore +0.9% and Copper +0.7%. Only some low tier Aussie data out yesterday CB Leading Index m/m and MI Leading Index m/m both coming in lower than markets anticipated. Later this morning, we will see some more weighted data out of Australia in the form of our Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. The Employment Change is expected to increase +7.2k, reflecting payback from the very strong growth reported in February (+116.5k), and with risks skewed towards an even weaker print. Similarly, the Unemployment Rate is expected to partially bounce back from the unexpected fall in February, with a rise to 3.9% from 3.7%.
USD
The AUDUSD pair is given a breather overnight amid a lack of economic data, with the pair reaching 0.6389 lows in the early hours before this morning's open at 0.6439. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also spoke last night signaling policymakers will wait longer than previously anticipated to cut interest rates following a series of surprisingly high inflation readings. Wall Street closed in the red overnight with the Dow Jones -0.1%, S&P -0.6% and Nasdaq -1.1%. Looking to the night ahead we have the US weekly Unemployment Claims expected to tick up slightly. Abnormally, the remainder of the week will be quiet in terms of US data.
EUR
The AUDEUR see’s little movement overnight with no major data to sway the rate, opening flat at 0.6035. European equities closed mixed with the DAX flat and the CAC +0.6%. A quiet day yesterday for European data with only the release of the Final CPI y/y and Final Core CPI y/y reading at market expectations. Similarly, today we will only see some mid/low-tier data releases in the form of their Current Account, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction and German Buba Monthly Report as well as German Buba President Nagel Speaking.
GBP
BOE’S Governor Bailey’s commentary overnight allowed the AUDGBP pair to tick slightly higher, opening around 20 basis points higher at 0.5169. British equities also gained some ground overnight with the FTSE closing 0.4% higher. The BOE’s Bailey spoke at the IMF and said he expects next month’s inflation number will show quite a strong drop and that inflation forecasting errors have diminished. Last night’s main data event was the UK’s March CPI which printed at 2.5y lows of 3.2% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 3.4%). We also saw their PPI, RPI and HPI y/y figures come in with mixed results. Looking to the night ahead we expect Retail Sales m/m to move from 0.0% to 0.3%.
NZD
The AUDNNZD opens relatively flat at 1.0887, with little data out to influence any movement. No more data out this week, with the next release being Monday’s Credit Card Spending y/y.