AUD Steadies in Familiar Ranges

AUD

The Aussie Dollar finds some respite overnight, seeing marginal gains against most currency pairs. Asian equities ended the session in negative territory, the ASX, Shanghai Comp, and Nikkei recorded a uniform decline of -0.1%. Commodities closed yesterday’s session mainly higher with Crude Oil +1.6%, Natural Gas -5%, Gold +0.7%, Silver +1.2%, Iron Ore +1.1% and Copper +0.7%. Yesterday we saw some mixed mid-tier data releases in the form of the MI Inflation Gauge m/m which dropped from +0.1% to -0.1%, ANZ Job Advertisements m/m which improved form a -2.1% to a -1% and the Commodity Prices y/y which remained flat at -15.3%, all having little sway in strengthening the Aussie Dollar. Yesterday’s main event was the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes where Australia's central bank signalled a shift towards a neutral stance, as the board did not entertain the idea of raising interest rates for the first time since May 2022. Noting the balance of risks to the outlook were “a little more even” than previously anticipated.  A quieter day for local data, however we will see some low-tier Chinese data in the form of their Caixin Services PMI.

USD

After a steady uptick the AUDUSD reclaims the 0.65 handle overnight, opening close to 30 basis points higher this morning at 0.6519. Wall street closed in the red with the S&P 500 -0.7%, Dow Jones and Nasdaq both -1%. US data was mixed with US JOLTS Job Openings slightly up in March, up to 8.756 m/m from 8.748 m/m to beat forecasts of 8.730 m/m. February Factory Orders rose 1.4% to beat estimates of +1.0% while Durable Goods Orders were revised slightly lower to 1.3% from an initial reading of 1.4%.  Yesterday we also saw a myriad of FOMC members speak, most notably Fed’s Mester who expects rate cuts this year, but is ruling out May, whilst Fed’s Daly reiterated No Urgency to Adjust the Rate (split opinions are evident). Tonight’s main events come in the form of the Fed Chair Powell Speaking, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (expected to shift from 140k to 148k), followed by the Final Services PMI (expected to remain flat at 51.7) and the ISM Services PMI (expected to shift from 52.5 to 52.8).

EUR

Following highs of 0.6065 overnight, the AUDEUR experienced a slight decline before ultimately opening higher this morning at 0.6053. European equities closed in the red with the DAX -1.1% and the CAC -0.9%. Overnight we saw final Italian, French, and German manufacturing PMIs for March beat estimates across the board. The Eurozone’s own manufacturing PMI followed and similarly read 46.1 against 45.7 forecasts. German CPI for March was 0.4% m/m, lower than expectations of 0.5% though matched expectations of 2.2% in y/y terms. Tonight’s main releases will come in the form of the Eurozone’s Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y and CPI Flash Estimate y/y, with markets are expecting a cooling in European inflation which would play into the theme that ECB rate cuts may be coming sooner rather than later.

GBP

The AUDGBP experienced marginal upward momentum over yesterday’s session, opening this morning around 15 basis points higher at 0.5183. British Equites closed slightly lower with the FTSE -0.2%. We had numerous mixed mid to low-tier data releases yesterday, with BRC Shop Price Index y/y and Nationwide HPI m/m both missing expectations and Final Manufacturing PMI, M4 Money Supply m/m, Mortgage Approvals and Net Lending to Individuals m/m all beating forecasts. Nothing on the cards today for the UK.

NZD

The AUDNZD pair saw 5-month highs of 1.0927 overnight before slightly dropping off but still opening higher at 1.0916. This morning, we saw the release of the GDT Price Index which beat previous readings of -2.8% coming in at +2.8%. No other data out until Thursday’s Building Consents and ANZ Commodity Prices.