Important Chinese PMIs Today
AUD
The Aussie Dollar opens mixed against majors, with commodities seeing mixed performance over the past 24 hours. Gold fell -0.3%, Silver down -0.7%, but Iron Ore was up 0.3% and Copper up 2.2%. Asian Equities closed in the green, with the ASX and the Shanghai comp both up 0.8%. There was no local news out yesterday, although we'll see some meaningful releases at 11:30am this morning. In Australia we have the Retail Sales m/m coming out, expectations at 0.2% from a previous 0.3%. From China, their Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs are set to be released. Both are expected to expand at a slower pace, with Manufacturing expected to come in at 50.3 (prev. 50.8) and Non-Manufacturing at 52.3 (prev. 53.0). This Chinese data will reveal how China is handling the large push to get their economy back up to speed, post their Covid shackles. Even though their economy grew faster than expected in Q1, China's March data suggests frail domestic demand. The property downturn continues to hit household confidence as well as local governments' finance. If we see any surprise PMI prints today, the Aussie Dollar may react accordingly.
USD
The AUDUSD edged higher in yesterday's session, briefly pushing through the 0.6580 barrier around mid-day, before easing off slightly overnight to this morning’s open at 0.6565. Wall Street saw some limited gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.4%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing up 0.3%. To the news, there was no releases out yesterday, with the busy week ahead kicking off tonight. We'll see the Employment Cost Index q/q, expected to rise from 0.9% to 1%, followed by the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y expected to also rise from 6.6% to 6.7%. Later in the night there will be Chicago PMI, looking to increase from 41.4 to 44.9 then the CB Consumer Confidence, expected to soften from 104.7 to 104.
EUR
The AUDEUR has small gains to start the week, creeping higher to this morning’s open of 0.6126 after reaching 3.5-month highs of 0.6138 in yesterday's session. European equities took a hit, with the DAX closing down -0.2% and the CAC down -0.3%. To the news, German Prelim CPI m/m came out lower the expected at 0.5%, with forecasts being an increase from 0.4% to 0.6%. Spanish Flash CPI y/y also came out lower at 3.3%, with expectations of an increase from 3.2% to 3.4%. This inflation data out of the eurozone is showing there is a resilient inflation in the economy, but it is within expectations. The ECB has been firm in the fact that there will be no further rate hikes this cycle and cuts will be on the way, but further increases in inflation may shake this headstrong rhetoric. Tonight, we have Core and headline CPI Flash Estimate y/y, with expectations that the Core figure will decrease from 2.9% to 2.6% and regular will remain unchanged at 2.4%.
GBP
The AUDGBP opens flat this morning, with the pair pushing higher over during yesterday’s trading session, breaking through the 0.5250, before doing a full retrace back to this morning’s open of 0.5223. UK Equities were lax into the close, with the FTSE closing up 0.1%. To the news, there was the BRC Shop Price Index y/y released this morning, coming in lower at 0.8%, previously at 1.3%. Today will be a quiet one for data, with Mortgage Approvals being released tonight, expected to increase from 60k to 61k.
NZD
The AUDNZD opens lower this morning, with the pair having early gains in yesterday’s session, pushing into the 1.10 barrier, over a 300-day high, before slowing dropping for the remainder of the day and overnight, opening this morning at 1.0983. Yesterday there was no news released, however, today we have the ANZ Business Confidence being released at 11am, with no forecasts, but previously at 22.9. Tomorrow morning, we'll get a glimpse at the latest NZ labour statistics, where the Unemployment Rate is expected to tick up to 4.3% from 4.0%. This comes as the Kiwi labour market continues to slow, although it's been a slow leak, rather than a dramatic change.