Currencies Start the Week Quietly
AUD
The Aussie Dollar was relatively subdued over the weekend, hovering among similar levels seen on Friday and opening flat against most majors after commodities gave a mixed performance. Gold was up 0.2%, Silver up 0.7%, Iron Ore down 0.6% and Copper down 0.7%. Asian equities were in poor form to close the week, with the ASX down 1.1% and the Shanghai Comp down 0.9%. On Friday, China had their Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y print lower at -27.9% from a previous 26.1%. There is no Aussie data set for release today. Tomorrow, we'll see Retail Sales m/m and Wednesday will bring the main local event for the week, being CPI y/y. A modest decline is expected in the Consumer Price Inflation figure, largely attributed to base effects. Any surprise results will likely shift the AUD on Wednesday.
USD
The AUDUSD sees a steady climb since Friday morning, gaining about 0.5%, opening this morning at 0.6629. Wall Street was mostly up into the close of the week, with the DOW JONES flat, but the S&P 500 up 0.7% and the NASDAQ up 1.1%. On Friday we had Durable Goods Orders m/m and the Core figure released, both coming in higher than expectations at 0.7% and 0.4%, with expectations at -0.9% and 0.1% from a previous 0.9% and 0.0% respectively. Following that we had the FOMC member Waller Speak at an economic conference, keeping a measured response, not impacting the markets. Finally, on Friday night there was the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment released, coming in higher at 69.1 from an expected 67.8 from a previous 67.4. Today is a bank holiday, so there is no news to be released from the US, and as a week in whole it is on the quiet side, with Thursday’s Prelim GDP q/q being the one to keep an eye out for, with expectations of a 1.3% increase (prev. 1.6%).
EUR
The AUDEUR sees a small rise since Friday morning, with the pair softening below the 0.61 barrier, before a lift to this morning’s open of 0.6110. European equites where soft into the close, with the DAX closing flat and the CAC down 0.1%. It was a quiet end to the week for the Europeans, with the German Final GDP q/q printed unchanged at 0.2%, right on expectations. Today there is the German ifo Business Climate to be released, expected to rise to 90.4 from a 89.4, which would be the highest reading since May last year, showing an improving German economy.
GBP
The AUDGBP remained in a tight range over the weekend, opening this morning at 0.5202. British equities finished the week in the red, with the FTSE down 0.3%. On Friday, Retail Sales m/m was released, coming in much lower at -2.3%, expected at -0.5% from -0.2%. Despite this large miss, it had a muted effect on the market. Looking forward, it is a remarkably quiet week, with very few data releases, so notable shifts in the AUDGBP will likely be due to AUD movements or external factors.
NZD
The AUDNZD kept a tight 0.15% range over the weekend, opening flat this morning flat at 1.0824. There was no data out on Friday or today, with all eyes on this Friday’s Annual Budget Release, which will detail the government’s financial objectives and fiscal policy, which may affect the decisions the RBNZ will need to make in terms of monetary policy.