AUD Upside Ahead of RBA Rate Decision

AUD

The Aussie Dollar creeps higher against the majors in anticipation of today's interest rate decision from the RBA at 2:30pm today. Commodities were soft into the close yesterday, with Gold flat, Silver up +0.2%, Iron Ore down -0.4% and Copper up +1.2%. Asian equities saw a good lift, with the ASX closing up +0.7% and Shanghai Comp up +1.2%. The RBA will meet this afternoon, where expectations are that the central bank will hold the Cash Rate again at 4.35%, despite the recent uptick in domestic consumer prices. Off the back of the recent price pressures, interest rate futures markets are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a hike by November, although near-0% chance of a hike at today's meeting. We'll also see the RBA Monetary Policy Statement followed by the RBA Press Conference at 3:30pm. Markets will be looking to the commentary for any talk of inflationary concerns or potential future hikes, which should see a further lift in the AUD. 


USD

The AUDUSD pushes higher yesterday, creeping up to flirt with the 0.6640 barrier before a light retrace to this morning’s open of 0.6621. Wall Street had a strong start to the week, with the Dow Jones closing up 0.5%, S&P 500 up 1% and the NASDAQ up 1.2%. Last night we had both FOMC member Barkin and Williams speaking at events that did not affect the market. Tonight will be another quiet one for the US Dollar, with Consumer Credit m/m expected to increase from 14.1B to 14.8B. Overall, a relatively quiet week ahead for the USD.
 

EUR

The AUDEUR pushes higher, keeping in a tight 13 pip range to start the week, opening this morning at 0.6150. European equites saw a good boost, with the CAC up 0.5% and the DAX up 1% yesterday. Looking to the news, Final Services PMI’s came in higher at 53.3, expected to be unchanged at 52.9 and the PPI m/m came out as expected at -0.4%, previously at -1.1%. Looking forward, there is only low tier data for the remainder of the week, with today having the German Factory Orders m/m, expected at 0.4% from 0.2% and Retail Sales m/m, expected to rise to 0.6%, from -0.5%.


GBP

The AUDGBP opens flat this morning, with the pair keeping close to the previous 5-month highs, opening this morning at 0.5271. UK Equites were green into the close, with the FTSE closing up 0.5%. There was no news out yesterday, as it was a bank holiday, with tonight bringing the Construction PMI. It's forecasted to lift from 50.2 to 50.4.
 

NZD

The AUDNZD grinded higher overnight, remaining near-11month highs at this morning's open at 1.1023. Yesterday we had the ANZ Commodity Prices m/m come out higher at 0.5%, previously at -1.3%. There is no data set to be released today.