US Labour Market Slowly Softening
AUD
The Aussie Dollar opens mixed across all majors despite a huge push from our commodities closing in the green with Gold +1.4%, Silver +2.7%, Crude Oil -0.7%, and Iron Ore +0.5%. Asian equities closed mostly in the red with the ASX -0.1% with materials and financials down -0.5%, the Shanghai Comp -0.3%, and the Nikkei Flat. Quiet day today on the news front as nothing is set for release until tomorrow morning with the Westpac consumer Sentiment, and NAB Business Confidence. It will be a light news week for the Aussie, however there will be some CNY data set for release on Wednesday with their CPI y/y forecasted to increase from 0.3% to 0.4% and PPI y/y forecasted to increase from -1.4% to -0.8%.
USD
AUDUSD opens this morning higher at 0.6747 after Friday evenings U.S. June payroll data delivered some mixed results as NFP came in at 206k which was above the 190k estimate, this was however offset by the rise in the Unemployment Rate which surprisingly printed at 4.1% (forecast 4.0%) which helped send U.S. Treasury yields lower while also reinforcing investors’ expectations for the Fed to deliver two 25bp rate cuts in 2024. US equities on the other hand closed with fresh record highs with the Dow Jones +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.5%, and the NASDAQ +0.9%. No news set for release today, however Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to congress on Wednesday morning and Thursdays U.S. June CPI, PPI, and Unemployment claims will be the key event and data risks this week.
EUR
AUDEUR opens higher this morning at 0.6231, after the surprise French election results showing a likely win for the left New Populist Front securing 180-205 seats, while Macron’s centrist group likely to win 164-174 and the far-right party performing much worse than indicated in the polls securing 120-130 seats. Note 289 seats were needed for an absolute majority and an outright win so there will be plenty to develop over the coming days as alliances are formed. ECB president Lagarde also spoke over the weekend, however there was no commentary on monetary policy so markets had no reaction. Eurozone equities closed mixed with the DAX +0.1% and CAC -0.3%. No major Eurozone date set for release this week, today we have German Trade Balance forecasted to come through lower at 19.9B from 22.1B, and Sentix Investor Confidence forecasted to drop from 0.3 to -0.6.
GBP
AUDGBP opens up basically flat at 0.5267 after a minor rally early this morning after dropping on Friday despite the Halifax HPI m/m missed at -0.2% from 0.0% and Housing Equity Withdrawals q/q fell more than expected at -23.9B from -24.7B. For UK Equities the FTSE closed in the red -0.5%. No data set for release today however Looking ahead this week’s main event will be Thursday’s GDP m/m which is forecasted to rise to 0.2% from 0.0%.
NZD
AUDNZD opens slightly lower this morning at 1.0983. There is no data today or tomorrow for the Kiwi. However, this week’s main event will be on Wednesday for the RBNZ's Official Cash Rate. They are expected to hold at 5.50% although the risk would be leaning towards an outside chance of a rate cut.