Commodities Drag AUD
AUD
The Aussie Dollar kicks off the week a little lower from Friday's open, with poor performance from commodities dragging the currency and little macroeconomic data to intervene. On Friday, we saw China release their Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and Producer Price Inflation (PPI) figures. China’s consumer prices rose faster than expected in July, driven mostly by a surge in food/pork prices, even as core inflation continued to sink, indicating further weakness in domestic demand. PPI y/y remained at -0.8%, being the same rate of decline as last month's figure. Asian equities finished the week mostly higher, buoyed by the Nikkei +0.5% and Hang Seng +1.2%, while Shenzhen finished -0.3%. The ASX finished strongly +1.3%, driven by info tech and real estate. To commodities, Crude Oil +1%, Gas +0.6%, Gold +0.1%, Silver -0.4%. Today we have RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaking at the Economic Society of Australia Business Lunch. We have a fair bit of data out this week as our main event will be Employment Change and Unemployment Rate out on Thursday.
USD
AUDUSD opened down this morning at 0.6569, with the AUD weakened bu poor commodity performance on Friday. It was a quiet weekend for USD. A quiet end to the week saw minor gains on Wall St. with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing +.5%, and the Dow Jones +.1%. Tonight, Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations and Federal Budget Balance. This week’s main event will be all CPI and PPI on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. They also have Four members of the Federal Reserve (Bostic, Musalem, Harker, and Goolsbee) are set to make public remarks this week. Given that Bostic is a voting member in 2024, his remarks might offer more insight into a potential rate cut in September. That is on Tuesday night.
EUR
AUDEUR reached 0.6047 highs during Friday's session before falling in the evening, trading sideways over the weekend to kick of the week at 0.6018. Friday night they saw German Final CPI m/m had no change at 0.3% and Italian Trade Balance fell from 0.638B to 5.07B this shows that compared with the same month of the previous year, exports decreased by -6.1% and imports dropped by -9.6%. European Equities, CAC +0.9%, and DAX +0.5%. They have low tier data out this week. This afternoon German WPI m/m, forecasted to rise to 0.2% from -0.3%.
GBP
AUDGBP opens a little lower at 0.5147. It was a very quiet end to the week on Friday. To equities, FTSE +0.7%. Today, Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index 3m/y and Unemployment Rate are all out at 4pm. This week’s main event will be CPI y/y and GDP m/m. They are out later this week.
NZD
AUDNZD opens lower this morning at 1.0913. It was a quiet day to end on Friday with no data out. Tomorrow morning, Visitor Arrivals m/m. This week’s main event will be on Wednesday as they have their Official Cash Rate. They are expected to hold at 5.50%. All eyes will be on the RBNZ Rate statement and Press Conference.