Trump Pivots on Tariff Threats in Record Time

AUD

The Aussie Dollar opens mixed against the majors as trade tensions and global growth doubts continue to weigh on the currency. Commodities saw some big moves yesterday with Natural Gas 4.5%, Iron Ore 1%, and Copper 2.8%. Asian equities were mixed with NIKKEI -0.6%, SHANGHAI COMP 0.4%, and locally the ASX -0.9%. Yesterday we had the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index which increased from 92.2 to 95.9, lifted by the RBA's decision to cut interest rates in February and further easing in cost-of-living pressures. NAB Business Confidence decreased by 6 points from 5 to -1, below the long-run average, as fears of a global trade war impact sentiment. Looking ahead it is a very quiet week for the Aussie and China.
 

USD

The AUDUSD pair opens up at 0.6295 this morning as Trump pivots on tariff threats in record time. Within hours of his declaration via social media to impose a double tariff of 50% on Canadian steel and aluminum, Trump has capitulated to pressures from both the market and cabinet, floating the suggestion that he may pivot away from his own double tariff just hours after he announced it. Trade tensions and uncertainty continue to limit the upside to the AUDUSD pair. US equities all closed the day in the red with DOW JONES -1.1%, S&P 500 -0.1% and NASDAQ -0.2%. Overnight the US had JOLTS Job Openings which came in above expectations at 7.74m. Tonight, the US has all of their inflation prints with Core Inflation M/M expected at 0.3% and CPI Y/Y expected at 2.9%. The report will draw particular attention amid concerns that President Trump's tariff policies will aggravate inflation and slow economic growth.
 

EUR

The AUDEUR pair continues its downwards trajectory as it opens up at fresh 5-year lows of 0.5768. European equities both ended the day down with the DAX -1.3% and CAC -1.3%. Fairly quiet day yesterday in Europe in terms of data events, however, the Euro continues to strengthen on the back of hopes that a German stimulus will lead to a more positive outlook for the Euro. Later this evening European Central Bank President Lagarde will be speaking.
 

GBP

The AUDGBP pairs opens lower at 0.4863 as investors become more confident that the Bank of England will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. We did however have BRC Retail Sales Y/Y come out overnight at 0.9% which was far below the expected 2.4% showing a potential slowdown in spending. The FTSE closed the day in the red at -1.2%. No data events from the UK today, with the rest of the week looking fairly quiet as well. Friday will bring GDP.
 

NZD

The AUDNZD pair opens up at 1.1016. Very quiet week for NZ. The next major data will be the BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index, on Friday.